Executive Editor Of RealClearPolitics Tom Bevan joined Fox News Radio's Guy Benson and Marie Harf to talk about the upcoming midterm election.
On people saying we can't trust the polls after 2016: Once again you've got Nate Silver with 86.5294% saying Dems are going to win the House and he keeps saying well 15% of Republicans keeping the House is not nothing. When you look at the toss up races in the House in particular there a lot for races that we don't have any polls for at all and another bunch of races where we have one poll and it's from The New York Times. And some of these races are even. Someone's up a point or two on either side. I mean they're very very close races. So, you can actually look at this data and construct a scenario where yeah sure Dems it breaks their way and they win 40 plus seats. You can still also construct a scenario where if Republicans turn out at the polls where they keep the House of Representatives. (00:46)
On possibility pollsters are underestimating how big a Blue Wave could be: When we look back at this election in hindsight, the way this stuff typically happens is one side is going to have a good night and it's going to represent itself across all these races in the House and the Senate and these races are not going to break. The 30 toss ups very very unlikely given historical patterns that they're going to break 15 for Dems 15 for Republicans. (4:32)
On if Republicans leading early voting means anything: The short answer is no. I think we often spend a lot of time trying to read these tea leaves on early voters and we did this a lot in 2016 and we're doing it again because more states are having early voting. It's becoming a more normal thing to vote early, but we don't know if those are new voters, if they're just cannibalizing voters who would have turned out on election day, and if they are voting for their party. We just don't know so much about it. (7:06)
On an Andrew Gillum-Rick Scott voter: It is fascinating and I guess the point to be made was that in a race that it this close things like that could make the difference. These are folks that this is what they're telling pollsters they're going to do. It doesn't mean it's actually what they're going to do. So, we'll have to wait and see what the numbers are, but it's an interesting idea that you could have a split ticket voter. These are not moderates. (12:15)