Democrats looking for a shocking underdog win in a special election in Ohio on Tuesday are hoping not only to snatch a House seat in a historically Republican district, but also to energize their national effort to fight President Trump's agenda and reclaim a congressional majority. Ohio's 12th Congressional District, in the suburbs of Columbus, has had a Republican representative for 35 years, and has been largely in GOP hands since 1920. But a poll released Monday by Monmouth University showed that Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson, 56, leads upstart challenger Danny O'Connor, 31, by just one percentage point.
Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics Sean Trende joined Fox News Radio's Guy Benson to give insight into Ohio's special election.
On this Ohio district: It's been Republican really since the Great Depression. It's kind of an odd district. There's definitely some rural areas but a lot of the population is the northern excerpts and suburbs of Columbus, which tends to be pretty wealthy. What we're seeing here is what we are seeing kind of nationally that whites with college degrees are starting to break with their traditional Republican ties and if it really happens here to the point where Balderson loses it is very bad news for Republicans, if that happens nationally. (1:28)
On if one or the other has momentum: O'Connor comes into this with some momentum. Now, whether the Trump rally over the weekend blunted some of that momentum we don't have the polling to see right now. (3:26)
On if the midterm elections are unlikely to be like 2010: I mean I'd be surprised if they lost half as many seats as they won in 2010, mostly because Republicans don't have as much exposure. There are 40 Democrats running in seats that John McCain carried outright in 2010. It's an enormous amount of exposure for their party and we don't see that for the Republican party. (7:35)
On his prediction of the special election: My gut and my sense from being out on the ground here is that O'Connor wins narrowly, but I would not put a large amount of money on that. (11:04)