Democrats are more interested in the upcoming midterm elections and more enthused to vote than usual, and that helps them to an 8-point edge in the generic congressional ballot test. This amid widespread concern that the country's political debate is overheated and even dangerous -- to the point that many voters steer clear of talking politics with family and friends.
Fifty-four percent of Democrats are "extremely" interested in the November elections, and 51 percent are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, according to the latest Fox News national poll.
Daron Shaw is a Professor of Government at the University of Texas and director, along with Chris Anderson, of the Fox Poll. Shaw joined Fox News Radio's Marie Harf to discuss this recent Fox News Poll and others.
On poll about the midterm elections enthusiasm: Right now, the latest Fox Poll we've got out we asked the question about how enthusiastic you are in voting in this midterm election vs. past elections and actually we wanted to get that anchor, 'How enthusiastic have you been in the past?' (1:15)
On the gap found in the poll between Democratic women and Republican women: What you've got if you think about four groups of voters out there Democratic men and women and Republican men and women three out of the four categories look almost the same. 53% of Republican men say they're really interested. 54% of Democratic men say they're really interested. 52% of Democratic women say they're really interested. And then only 39% of Republican women. (3:49)
On poll about #AbolishICE: Well, there's a broader theory in political science that basically suggests that when people don't know very much about something they really respond to cues from party elite. Democrats are looking to Democratic lawmakers and opinion leaders to figure out what do I think of this. Republicans do the same. And what was interesting and what we wanted to test here was Democratic leadership has come out very forcefully against ICE. For the most part they've come out and targeted ICE as a real problem and so we were interested as to whether rank and filed Democrats had picked up on that cue. (5:49)
On poll about same-sex marriage: If you go back 2003 when we first I think asked the question at that point only 32% of Americans favored legalizing same-sex marriage. By 2015 that 32% rises to 48% and then as you said the first time since we've been asking this question a majority 54% favor same-sex marriage. Only 35% oppose. (9:14)
On poll about Supreme Court: I think the consensus of those of us who have looked at the poll that what's going is kind of reaction to nature of the vacancy that's immersed. (10:05)
Defending his profession: A couple of quick rules of thumb. National polls done with traditional probability samples are much more reliable than state-wide polls or national polls done with non-probability sample frameworks. That's point one and point two they are snapshots in time. So, the closer you get to the election the more confident you're going to be in the outcome. (13:30)